Potential effects of climate change on the distributiom of the endangered Darwin’s frog
Herein, we gathered 109 historic and current records of the endangered Darwin's frog (Rhinoderma darwinii) to be able to model its potential current and future distribution by means of expert opinion and species distribution model (Maxent). Results showed that R. darwinii's potential current distribution is much wider than the known one, mainly due to anthropogenically modified areas which were concentrated in the Chilean central valley. We identified a major threat to Darwin's frog existence, namely isolation of the population between the Coastal and Andean mountain ranges. On the other hand, SDM projections onto future climate scenarios suggest that in 2080, the frog's climatically suitable areas will expand and slightly shift southward. However, due to current ongoing threats, such as habitat destruction, we encourage further monitoring and surveying of Darwin's frog populations and increased protection of their habitat, especially at the central valley.